New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals: Moneyline
Free Pick: New York Moneyline
The Cardinals have been getting just what they expected out of Todd Wellemeyer, but it looks like it is just a matter of time before the right hander runs off of the tracks. Standing at 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA through two starts, Wellemeyer is the definition of league average. On Tuesday, Wellemeyer will return home – the place where he surrendered five earned runs and twelve hits in only five innings of work against the Pittsburgh Pirates on opening week.
In his career, Wellemeyer has been plagued by control issues, issuing a startling 5 walks/game over the course of his Major League career. Though it hasn’t bit him yet in the young 2009 season, Tuesday’s game against the Mets might provide the perfect time. New York is 4th in the NL in walks taken this season, and finished 2nd in that category in 2008. They are as patient a bunch as there is in baseball, which could cause some problems for the Cardinals starter.
Meanwhile, the Mets will counter with lefty Oliver Perez, who didn’t have his best stuff in his last start, but still managed to hold the Padres to one run over six innings. He used his changeup and slider more in that start, going away from his bread and butter fastball on what was a cold night in Queens. There is reason to like Perez against the Cardinals, as they feature left-handed bats Ryan Ludwick, Chris Duncan, and Rick Ankiel in their lineup. Perez was tough on lefties last season, holding them to a sub-.600 OPS.
The pitching matchup is an overwhelming advantage in favor of the Mets, and with one of the best lineups in the league, there is no reason to think that New York will be held to less than five or six runs in this game. Meanwhile, they have arguably the best bullpen in baseball to hold down any lead that makes it that far. The Mets are slight underdogs, too, making this a great value play for anyone looking to exploit what should be a total mismatch on the mound.
The Pick: NY Mets (Perez/Wellemeyer must pitch) +108 (moneyline)
Check out all of our Baseball picks.
Related posts: