NFL 2008 Season: Week 4 Recap
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Week 4 featured 13 matchups as there were 6 teams on their bye week. Although 4 out of the 6 teams (New England, Indianapolis, New York Giants & Seattle) that were inactive in week 4 are arguably some of the strongest teams in the NFL, there was no shortage of entertainment for NFL fans. For the second week in a row, there was a wealth of offense distributed evenly amongst the NFL as the over record for week 4 was 10-2-1. Brett Favre managed to break another personal record at the age of 39, as he threw for 6 touchdown passes. The Bills and Titans are currently the only undefeated teams in the league, meanwhile the Chiefs finally ended a 12 game losing streak. The Texans, Rams, Bengals and Lions remain winless. Unlockedsports.com established its fourth consecutive winning week, posting a 7-4 record. Here are some interesting stories from week 4; |
Two big upsets: Last week the Dolphins surprised the league by demolishing the Pats on the road 38-13. It’s enough of a shock that the Pats lost a game by that score in the first place. It’s even more shocking that they got creamed at home as a 12.5 point favorite by the Miami Dolphins, a team that was 1-15 last season. This week the Broncos and Cowboys were both favored by at least two scores and lost. Denver was a 9.5 point favorite over K.C., a team that was 0-3 prior to week 4 and missing its starting QB. The Chiefs were leading most of the game and sealed it with a 33-17 victory. Running back Larry Johnson was the hero of the game for K.C. as he ran for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. K.C’s defense was outstanding, limiting the number one point producing team in the NFL to 17 points. Jay Cutler did not have a good game. Although he did throw for 361 yards, he only had one touchdown and threw 2 picks. The other major upset between the cowboys vs redskins saw the Cowboys, a 10.5 point favorite, lose to the Redskins at home. The key to Washington’s victory was quite simple. They kept their offense on the field. The Skins maintained possession for 63.3% of the game. The Cowboys made a late run towards the end of the game but came up short as the Redskins won 26-24.
Over bet appears to be the safe bet: The over/under record for the past 2 weeks is 21-7-1 as many teams have been clicking offensively, meanwhile others have been breaking apart defensively. There are several teams that are doing both. These types of teams rely heavily on their offense to win games and take a lot of chances. Thus, they also allow a lot of points. So far this season there are 5 teams that haven’t played in a game where the total point spread went under this season. They include New Orleans, San Diego, Denver, Seattle and Houston. Their combined record for the over/under total is 15-0-1. If you are unsure about who to bet on for week 5, it appears that betting overs is a safe bet,
especially for the 5 mentioned teams. I previously mentioned the over/under record for week 4 was 10-2-1. This may be a general hot trend developing in the NFL. Our record for betting the over this season is pretty impressive as we are currently 6-2. You can expect that unlockedsports.com will have a several picks for over bets with in depth analyses for week 5.
Home teams are winning: Another interesting trend that is apparent from week 3 and 4 is that teams are having a substantial amount of success playing at home. In week 4, the record for teams playing at home was 12-4. In week 5, it was 9-4. It is important to note that these are straight up winning records and not ATS records. However, they definitely help give some kind of insight on betting for week 5.
Change of personnel for underperforming teams: What do the Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders and St. Louis Rams have in common? Well they are losing football games for one, as there is only 1 win between the three of these teams. Because of their poor performances the team’s upper management decided to go with a change of personnel in order to give their teams a much needed spark. Ironically, each team made the change right before their team was entering their bye week. Detroit fired President Matt Millen after going to 0-3. We have yet to find out if this change and the bye week will help the Lions win their first game. They face Chicago this week in front of their home fans. St. Louis is by far the worst team in the NFL this season. Firing Coach Scott Linehan was a no brainer as the Rams are not just a 0-4 team but they are a team that found a way to be embarrassed 4 times in a row. They were 9 to 9.5 point underdogs in each of those games and didn’t cover in any of them. On average, they are losing each game by 26 points this season. The Oakland Raiders finally fired Coach Lane Kiffin. The Raiders managed to win one game out of 4 and let 2 games slip away as they blew a 10 point lead against Buffalo and a 15 point lead against San Diego. However, unlike St. Louis and Detroit, Oakland is a team that is in a rebuilding stage with a lot of young prospects in the system, and is not that far away from being a playoff contender. The Raiders are able to be a competitive football team. They just need to learn how to compete for 4 whole quarters.
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