2009 Super Bowl Teaser
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Bet 3 units on 7 point Teaser Ticket: This year, picking an ATS winner for the Super Bowl is a very difficult task. I am only releasing this play for my existing clientele as I do not see much value in betting on this year’s Super Bowl. The spread and point total will likely be covered by 3-5 points by either team or either side. So, who is going to determine what side to choose from? Betting on last year’s Super Bowl was easy money because the spread and point total were both ridiculously inflated. It didn’t take a genius to figure out that the Pats weren’t going to cover a double digit spread and that the point total was not going to exceed 55 points. |
After carefully handicapping this event it appears that the Steelers are a more complete team than Arizona and therefore have a significant advantage at winning the game. However, the Cardinals have stepped their game up substantially in the playoffs. So I recommend a 3 unit 7 point teaser play as this is a conservative approach and because it gives you the most amount of value for this particular event. The following are reasons for my particular teaser selections.
Arizona +14: I have a strong feeling that this will be a very close game, likely decided by a touchdown or less. The reality is that Pittsburgh will likely win but the Cardinals have a legitimate chance at it too. The Cardinals are facing the number one ranked defense but have been averaging 31.7 points per game during the playoffs. Pittsburgh allowed 24 points to San Diego, a team that is almost as strong offensively as Arizona. The bottom line is that the Cardinals should probably put up 20-25 points against Pittsburgh. Defensively Arizona has stepped up during the playoffs, allowing an average of 20.6 points per game, 5 points fewer than their season average. Additionally, the Cards defense has forced 12 turnovers during the playoffs.
Over 39.5: During the playoffs, these teams have a scored a combined average of 60.7 points per game. The total in an Arizona Cardinals game was less than 40 only once this season including playoffs. Betting over 39.5 points for this game is the closest thing to a guaranteed win.
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