Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills: Spread
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This is a crucial divisional matchup featuring 2 teams who are fighting to make the playoffs. At 7-5, the Dolphins are tied with New England for second place in the AFC East and are in a favourable position to make the playoffs as a wildcard team. The Bills are 6-6 and cannot afford to lose a single game in order to make the playoffs. This will be one of the more important games this week as it will have an impact on each team’s chances of making the playoffs. |
Miami is 3-1 in its last 4 but hasn’t covered in any of those contests. This is because the Dolphins faced 3 weak opponents and were favoured by at least 7 points in each of those contests. However, the reality is that the Dolphins may not blow out weak opponents but they have been quite dominant as of late when they are considered to be the underdog. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 this season as an underdog. The bottom line is that Miami cannot afford to lose this game. They are currently fighting with New England (7-5), Baltimore (8-4) and Indianapolis (8-4) for a wildcard spot in the playoffs.
The main reason that I am confident in Miami is because the Bills have played absolutely atrocious lately. After starting the season 5-1, the Bills have gone 1-5 in their last 6 contests. Buffalo’s recent struggles are highly related poor defensive performances. After allowing an average of 19.7 points per game in its first 6 games of the season, Buffalo has allowed an average of 27.3 points in its last 6. The Bills still haven’t defeated a single team with a winning record yet.
Expect this to be a low scoring defensive battle. The Dolphins are the better team and are more determined to make a run at the postseason. The Bills’ season is over. Miami will win this one convincingly.
Prediction: Miami 24 Buffalo 13
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