Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers: Over/Under
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This will be an exciting matchup featuring two teams who are fighting to make the playoffs. The Falcons at 7-4 could still mathematically win the NFC South but are also in a favorable position to make the playoffs as a wildcard team. The Chargers at 4-7 could still win the AFC West. But their chances are slim and this game is an absolute must win for them. |
The total for this game is quite inflated. The Falcons and Chargers are able to put up big numbers, as they are averaging 25.8 and 24.9 points per game. However, there are numerous factors that come into play when analyzing the total for this game. Since Ron Rivera took over as defensive coordinator for San Diego, the Chargers defense has stepped up. In its first 8 games of the season, San Diego allowed an average of 24.9 points per game to the opposition. Since Rivera stepped in the Chargers have allowed an average of only 17.7 points per game. Two of the three opponents they faced during that stretch currently have winning records.
Atlanta is one of the strongest offensive teams in the NFL, but is much less productive on the road. The Falcons are averaging 16.6 points per game on the road this season. I wouldn’t necessarily count on Atlanta to score 17 points or less but at least we can expect them to not put up an easy 30 points like it would if it were playing at home.
The Chargers are a very strong offensive team but appears to have slowed down recently, averaging 16.7 points per game in their last 3 contests. The Falcons are only allowing an average of 20.5 points per game to the opposition. The bottom line is that with a total set at 49, both offenses have the opportunity to be efficient and still not break the point total. When the total is this high, usually there has to be at least 6 touchdowns scored in order to break it. I just can’t see that happening in this one. Both teams will excel defensively.
The trends are also highly favoring the under. Under is 7-1 in Atlanta’s last 8 versus a team with a losing record and 4-0 in San Diego’s last 4 versus teams with winning records. Additionally, under is 5-1 in San Diego’s last 6 home games versus teams with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
As I mentioned previously, the total is set too high. The reason it’s this high is because the public views San Diego as an offensive powerhouse. When you add the factor that San Diego’s opponent is also a very strong offensively, the total becomes inflated beyond reality. There is an unbelievable amount of value in betting the under in this contest.
Prediction: Atlanta 24 San Diego 20
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