Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears: Spread
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Logically, it would make sense to pick Chicago for a few reasons. First they demolished the Lions 34-7 in their previous meeting this season. Additionally, the Bears could have Brandon Lloyd, Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman back from injuries. However, this season double digit underdogs have a dominant 12-1 record. There are several reasons for this. |
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First, since the spread is so large the underdog is almost guaranteed to cover simply by putting up a strong performance. Likewise, if the heavy favourite doesn’t have a great game they may still win but most likely won’t cover. By playing the underdog in this matchup you are going with the trend that either Detroit will give the Bears a run for their money or that Chicago may play sloppy. Honestly, the Bears are a good football team but do they really deserve to be a 13 point favourite?
Since being blown out by Chicago in week 5, Dan Orlovsky has taken over as starting quarterback and although the Lions remain winless, they have covered their last 3, losing by an average of 5.67 points per game. Additionally the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams. Expect the Lions to give the Bears a run for their money. Don’t make the mistake of underestimating the underdog in this one. The odds are more in your favour by playing the underdog when there is a 13 point spread. All it takes is for the favourite to make 1 mistake and the underdog could easily cover.
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