NFL Week 6 Power Rankings
In week 3 we introduced our 4 level scaled power rankings. In short, rather than assessing a numerical rating for each team and ranking them on a scale of 1-32, we grouped them into 4 separate levels. We feel that it is extremely difficult to justify that one team is clearly better than another in certain circumstances so we developed a levelled power rankings model. In week 3 our model was based on 4 levels. At that point our rankings were based on what we observed in the first 2 weeks of action. Basically, the model determined that higher level teams were stronger than lower level teams. Teams that were at the same level may not have the exact same level of strength but they are clearly stronger than teams in lower levels and weaker than the teams in higher levels.
We can now expand our model to five levels since we have now witnessed 5 weeks of action and therefore we have a more accurate perception of the strengths and weaknesses of each NFL franchise. The scale is based on statistical factors, strength of schedule, and the obstacles that the teams have overcome or failed to overcome. This scale is designed to help bettors in determining possible advantages in playing for or against these teams against the spread. For example, under normal circumstances a level 1 team should usually be favored over a level 3, 4 or 5 team. However, it is quite obvious that a level 4 or 5 team will never be favored over a level 1 team. However, there may be circumstances where a team that is ranked 2 levels below their opponent may be the favorite based on public perception. This is where the true value in playing the spread can be found. Often a team that is ranked 1 level below its opponent may be favored and although there may be value in this several factors need to be analyzed more closely to determine the true value of playing the underdog in that particular matchup.
The 5 level scale is broken down as follows;
Level 1: The teams in this level have one thing in common; they are undefeated. We have carefully analyzed each undefeated team and have determined that at this point of the season they are the toughest and most powerful opponents in the National Football League. There is no question that any team in this level can defeat a lower level team at any given point. At this point of the season these teams have officially proven that they are able to find ways to defeat tough opponents and are able to not only win but easily cover spreads versus weaker opponents. They will most likely win their respective divisions.
New Orleans Saints (4-0): They are outscoring the opposition by a margin of 19.5 points per game and their defense has already forced 13 turnovers including 3 defensive touchdowns.
New York Giants (5-0): The Giants have dominated the opposition for the most part of the season, outscoring their previous three opponents by a combined margin of 95-23.
Indianapolis Colts (5-0): Peyton Manning has proved that he can do the job all by himself as he has already thrown for 1645 yards, 12 touchdowns and has the highest QB rating in the league (114.1).
Minnesota Vikings (5-0): Favre has 9 tds and only 2 picks, AP has 7 rushing tds and Jared Allen has 6.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and a safety in only 5 games.
Denver Broncos (5-0): Josh McDaniels has turned Kyle Orton into an elite game manager, throwing 7 tds to only 1 interception and Denver’s defense continues to dominate ranking 1st in points allowed (8.6) and 2nd in yards (252.8).
Level 2: These teams have the potential to be a level 1 team. Some of them may easily be one or two wins away from achieving this status. However, there is clearly an aspect in their game that must be addressed before we can officially consider them level 1 status.
Atlanta Falcons (3-1): After a disappointing loss to the Pats in week 3, the Falcons completely walked all over San Fran’s stingy defense in a 45-10 blowout victory.
New England Patriots (3-2): They are playing decent defensively but Tom Brady appears to be a little rusty with a QB rating of only 85.9.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-1): They are a tipped pass away from being undefeated but they are only 3-2 ATS and they had to come from behind late in the fourth quarter in each of their victories.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-1): DeSean Jackson is having a breakout year, averaging 20 yards per reception, and as a result the Eagles are very close to being level 1 caliber.
Chicago Bears (3-1): The Bears are scoring but are also having a lot of difficulty moving the ball ranking 22nd in yards.
Level 3: These teams have enough talent to defeat a level 2 team but have been inconsistent in this young season. It definitely would not be wise to write these teams off because the season is still young and they have more than enough time to turn things around.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2): Last year’s Super Bowl champions are only 1-4 ATS but will get a much needed boost as Troy Polomalu returns to the lineup.
Baltimore Ravens (3-2): The Ravens started the season strong winning their first 3 but have shown signs of weakness as of late dropping two in a row, including last week’s loss where they allowed Carson Palmer to march down the field and score the winning touchdown in the final two minutes.
San Francisco 49ers (3-2): The return of Frank Gore, the signing of Michael Crabtree and the bye week will help the 49ers overcome their 45-10 blowout loss to Atlanta and get back on track for week 7.
Miami Dolphins (2-3): After losing its first 3 contests this season, the Dolphins’ Wildcat offense has found new life as Miami has won two in a row and leads the league in rushing.
New York Jets (3-2): The Jets were hot winning three in a row by shutting down Houston, New England and Tennessee but since then they have lost their last 2 and allowed a total of 55 points.
San Diego Chargers (2-2): The Chargers have enough talent to be a level 1 team but they are only 1-3 ATS this season mainly because they are allowing 25.5 points per game to the opposition.
Seattle Seahawks (2-3): Matt Hasselbeck’s presence makes Seattle a competitive football team as they are 2-1 and outscoring the opposition 79-23 in the games he started.
Arizona Cardinals (2-2): So far the Cardinals have only looked like a good football team for 1 ½ games out of 4.
Green Bay Packers (2-2): In order for the Packers to move up the rankings, Aaron Rodgers will need to be sharper since he has completed only 56.7% of his passes this season.
Level 4: These teams are not quite basement teams and do not necessarily have a poor record. However, they have been extremely inconsistent so far this season and have not beaten a team in a higher level. Mathematically, they could easily make the playoffs but realistically it likely won’t happen.
Dallas Cowboys (3-2): The Cowboys needed overtime to beat the Chiefs and their 3 wins came against opponents with a combined record of 1-13.
Houston Texans (2-3): Excluding the game against Oakland, the Texans are allowing an average of 28.5 points per game.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3): Their two wins were against level 4 teams and they were absolutely brutal in their 41-0 loss to Seattle.
Tennessee Titans (0-5): The only reason that the Titans are not considered a basement team is because they had a very tough schedule.
Carolina Panthers (1-3): Carolina is scoring only 14.2 points per game and has yet to cover a spread this season.
Washington Redskins (2-3): Jim Zorn’s squad had a very easy schedule, facing three basement teams and they only won two of those games and failed to cover the number in each of those contests.
Level 5: These are the basement teams of the league. Most of them are young, rebuilding teams and some of them will likely see organizational changes either during the season or in the offseason. One thing is certain; none of these teams will likely win more than 4 games. However, sometimes they are worth playing as a heavy underdog.
Oakland Raiders (1-4): Jamarcus Russell appears to be the biggest bust since Ryan Leaf and as a result the Raiders are averaging less than 10 points per game.
Kansas City Chiefs (0-5): The Chiefs may be a basement team but they have the ability to keep games close and cover spreads.
Buffalo Bills (1-4): Buffalo’s only win was against the Bucs and the Bills have managed to score a combined total of only 20 points in their last 3 contests.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5): The Bucs have already switched quarterbacks and are a very young team learning a new system under a rookie head coach.
Cleveland Browns (1-4): The Browns have also switched quarterbacks and were able to pick up their first win but this was more or less a win by default as they defeated the Bills and only scored 6 points.
St. Louis Rams (0-5): Steve Spagnuolo has a lot of work to do since the Rams are being outscored by an average margin of 22.6 points per game by the opposition.
Detroit Lions (1-4): The Lions finally got their first win but have they have worst defense, allowing 32.4 points per game.
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