Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers: Spread
|
This is a divisional matchup, Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers is of little importance between two AFC West teams who will not be making the playoffs this year. Prior to the season, San Diego was heavily favored to win its division and was also considered to be a strong favourite at winning the Super Bowl. At 4-8, it appears that San Diego has completely collapsed this season. The Raiders who are currently 3-9, have been one of the worst teams in the league over the past few seasons. |
One of the main reasons that I am confident that Oakland will cover is because it has stepped up its game defensively as of late. The Raiders have allowed an average of only 16 points per game in their last 4 contests. They are facing a struggling offense that has been averaging only 16.5 points per game in its last 4. One of the main reasons that San Diego has been struggling offensively is that Philip Rivers has not been playing that well as of late. He threw 19 touchdowns and 6 picks in his first 8 games this season and 4 touchdowns and 4 picks in his last 4 games. In short, during the first half of the season Rivers was throwing 2.4 touchdowns per game and had a touchdown to interception ratio of 3.1 to 1. During the past 4 games he has been averaging 1 touchdown and 1 interception per game. Oakland’s secondary has already picked off the opposition 13 times. It would be quite reasonable to assume that Rivers will get picked off at least once this game.
Many people would pick San Diego in this one since the Chargers have Oakland’s number. San Diego is 10-1 against the spread in the last 11 meetings between the 2 teams. They met in week 4 this season. The Chargers covered a 9.5 point spread by winning the game 28-18. The Raiders were covering the spread until the last few minutes of the fourth quarter when LaDanian Tomlinson got a rushing touchdown to put San Diego up by 10. The circumstances are quite different now. Oakland has covered 3 out of 4 times this season as a 9+ point road underdog. San Diego is 1-5 against the spread in its last 6 games as a favourite and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 overall.
The reality is that this line is too inflated. It does not make any kind of sense to lay 10 points on San Diego when they’ve only covered once in their last 6. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Oakland won the game. Take the Raiders with the points.
Prediction: San Diego 20 Oakland 16
Related posts: