Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys: Over/Under
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This is a critical inter conference matchup featuring two teams who are fighting for a wildcard playoff berth. Each team has an identical 9-5 record. The winner of this game is almost guaranteed a wildcard playoff spot; meanwhile the loser may have little hope in making the playoffs this season. |
Bet 3 units on the under. Based on the way these teams have been playing lately, this looks like it will be quite a defensive battle. The average point total of Dallas’ last 5 games versus opponents with winning records is 31.2 points per game. This is mainly due to the fact that Wade Phillips decided to take over the defense after an embarrassing 34-14 loss to the Rams in week 7. Since then, the Cowboys’ defense has allowed an average of only 15.1 points per game. On a related note, Dallas currently leads the NFL with 53 sacks. Therefore, it would make sense to assume that rookie QB Joe Flacco will be sacked at least 3-4 times. He has already been sacked 25 times this season.
The Ravens depend heavily on their ground attack in order to move the ball. They rank 6th in rushing yards and 28th in passing. Dallas has been strong defensively in stopping the pass and the run. The Cowboys are ranked 8th in the NFL in both categories. Their run defense will definitely get tested in this one. Fortunately Dallas has been quite efficient at stopping the run as of late, allowing an average of only 68.4 rushing yards per game in its last 5. In short, the Cowboys will limit Baltimore from lighting up the scoreboard.
The Ravens as we all know are a defensive powerhouse. They are allowing an average of only 15.3 points per game, ranking 3rd in the league and have the second ranked overall defense, allowing an average of only 257.5 yards per game. The Ravens have been red hot defensively as of late, allowing an average of only 8.25 points per game in their last 4 contests. They are facing a Cowboys offense that has been averaging 23.2 points per game since Tony Romo’s return. However, they have only been only averaging 15.7 points per game against teams with winning records during that span. Therefore, one can expect that the Ravens will be successful at limiting the Cowboys offensively.
There are several trends related to Dallas that favour the under. Under is 4-1 in Dallas’ last 5 overall and in their last 5 games as a favourite. Expect this to be a defensive struggle. Dallas will probably win but they won’t win by a large margin and they won’t score that many points.
Prediction: Dallas 17 Baltimore 13
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