Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans: Spread
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This is a matchup featuring the top two AFC teams who are fighting for guaranteed homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Each team has already clinched their division. This is a game of critical importance because it will set the tone for each team for the playoffs and because there is a chance these teams may confront each other in the AFC Conference finals. |
Bet 5 units on the Steelers. At this point, each team appears to be heading in opposite directions. The Steelers are on a 5 game winning streak and their last 3 wins were against teams with winning records. The Titans on the other hand, started the season winning their first 10 games and now have dropped 2 of their last 4. Additionally, their last 2 wins came against teams who currently have a combined record of 4-24. Fortunately for Tennessee, they have already clinched their division and therefore they can afford to lose their final two games.
The main reason that this is a Platinum pick is due to the fact that the Titans will be without defensive linemen Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. They have already played 4 games without Vanden Bosch but the loss of both tackles is a huge blow to Tennessee’s defense. Haynesworth currently leads the Titans with 8.5 sacks. Last season he missed 3 games and the impact of his absence really hurt the Titans. They lost each of those games and allowed an average of 32.3 points per game during that stretch. I wouldn’t necessarily expect Pittsburgh to light up the scoreboard against Tennessee. However, one thing with Pittsburgh is quite obvious; they don’t need to score many points to win big games.
The Steelers are the best defensive team in the NFL. They are allowing 13.7 points per game and 239.1 yards, ranking first in both categories. The Titans struggled immensely last week against Houston, turning the ball over twice and maintaining possession for less than 24 minutes. They only managed 100 rushing yards and Kerry Collins completed less than 50% of his passes. If they perform like this against Pittsburgh they won’t be able to score a single touchdown.
There are several trends that are quite favourable for the Steelers. They have beaten the spread 4 games in a row, and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus teams with winning records. Additionally, they have covered in each of their 5 previous road games. The bottom line is that Pittsburgh’s defense will win this game. Expect this game to be similar to last week’s 13-9 victory over the Ravens. The difference here is that the Titans will not be as efficient as Baltimore defensively without Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch. This will give Pittsburgh an opportunity to get a comfortable lead. Lay the points on the Steelers.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 20 Tennessee 10
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