Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
Free Pick: UNDER 40 (2 units)
There is a fair amount of value in playing the UNDER in this interconference matchup. The Vikings are one of the league’s strongest defensive teams. Last year they ranked 4th in sacks (45), were tied for 3rd in forced fumbles (22) and ranked first in rushing yards allowed (76.8). They ranked 18th for passing yards allowed (215.6) but managed to improve significantly from 2007 when they were dead last allowing an average of 264.5 passing yards.
The bottom line is that Minnesota’s defense will be too strong for Cleveland’s mediocre offense that managed to score only 14.5 points per game last season. There is no doubt that Cleveland will definitely be better than last year under new head coach Eric Mangini and 2 healthy starting quarterbacks, but they still have a long way to go. Mangini is a defensive genius and will focus his efforts heavily on controlling the clock and strengthening his defense. The addition of Brett Favre to the Minnesota Vikings does not turn this team into an offensive powerhouse but definitely gives the Vikings the opportunity to be a Super Bowl Contender. It is quite obvious that Favre is not the same QB as he was in his Green Bay era but he can help the Vikings win games by making simple completions, and obviously by not throwing interceptions. Minnesota’s offense will still rely heavily on Adrian Peterson as Favre will have to adjust to the Vikings playbook. In the end, both teams will be heavily running the ball in this matchup. This game will be heavily concentrated on field position. I can’t see too many touchdowns being scored in this one.
There are a few trends favoring the UNDER in this one. UNDER is 8-3 in Cleveland’s last 11 home games and 5-1 in its last 6 Week 1 contests. UNDER is 7-3-1 in Minnesota’s last 11 games in September. Lay 2 units on the UNDER.
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