NFL Week 3 Power Rankings
After carefully reviewing the first two weeks of action we are releasing our week 3 power rankings. It is very early in the season so these rankings are considered more or less estimates. Instead of using a numbered ranking system where each team is ranked from a scale of 1 to 32, we have decided to use a 4 level scale. This gives us a lot more flexibility since it does not single out a specific team to be considered weaker than another but rather a selected group of teams.
The scale is based on the team’s accomplishments in the first 2 weeks of action and takes into consideration the obstacles they had to overcome and the strength of the opponents they have faced. This scale is designed to help bettors in determining possible advantages in playing for or against these teams against the spread. For example, under normal circumstances a level 1 team should always be favored over a level 3 or 4 team. One thing is certain. Oddsmakers will never have a level 4 team favored over a level 1 team. However, there may be circumstances where a team that is ranked 2 levels below their opponent may be the favorite based on public perception. This is where the true value in playing the spread can be found. Often a team that is ranked 1 level below its opponent may be favored and although there may be value in this several factors need to be analyzed more closely to determine the true value of playing the underdog in that particular matchup.
The 4 level scale is broken down as follows;
Level 1: The teams in this level have one thing in common; they are 2-0. Not all 2-0 teams are in Level 1 but what we consider to be the strongest undefeated teams. We feel these teams will very likely be playoff contenders and potentially Super Bowl Contenders. In short, you probably want to bet for these guys and not against them.
New Orleans Saints: Averaging 46.5 points per game and forcing 7 turnovers, the Saints look somewhat similar to the 2007 Pats that went 18-1 but a little weaker defensively.
New York Jets: Rex Ryan’s squad managed to defeat the Texans and Patriots and limited them to a combined total of 16 points.
New York Giants: Despite a lack of depth at the receiver position, Eli Manning proved that he can run New York’s offense, already throwing for 586 yards, 3 tds and 1 INT.
Minnesota Vikings: Their two wins were against two of the league’s weakest opponents but they have a top ranked running game, a top ranked defense and a passing game that is sufficient enough to win important games.
Indianapolis Colts: Despite adjusting to new coaching personnel, the loss of Anthony Gonzalez, and having a defense that is unable to stop the run, Peyton Manning proved that he can do the job all by himself.
San Francisco 49ers: The team is 7-3 under Singletary and has established itself as a defensive powerhouse by limiting the Cardinals to only 16 points in front of their home crowd.
Level 2: These teams definitely have the potential to be a level 1 team. However, many of them failed to achieve a 2-0 record and the level 2 teams that are 2-0 still have to prove that they are legitimate contenders.
Denver Broncos: They are 2-0 and have limited their opponents to a combined total of only 13 points but their first win was the result of a fluke play, a tipped pass that turned into an 87 yard touchdown reception.
Atlanta Falcons: They defeated the Dolphins and Panthers convincingly but they did this in Atlanta and both of their opponents are currently 0-2.
New England Patriots: They almost had to put off a miracle comeback to defeat the Bills in week one and were completely shutdown by the Jets in week 2.
Houston Texans: The Texans would have been a Level 3 team last week but their offense managed to score 31 points against Tennessee’s stingy defense.
Philadelphia Eagles: If McNabb, Westbrook and Jackson were healthy this team would be in Level 1.
Chicago Bears: Jay Cutler rebounded nicely from a terrible performance in week 1 but this team still has a lot to prove on both sides of the football before it could be considered a Level 1 contender.
Arizona Cardinals: After struggling throughout the entire preseason and week 1, Kurt Warner was nearly perfect last week against Jacksonville, completing 24/26 passes for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Pittsburgh Steelers: If the Steelers would have defeated Chicago they would be a Level 1 contender this week.
Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati lost because of a fluky play in week 1 and managed to defeat the Packers at Lambeau Field last week.
Buffalo Bills: If Leodis McKelvin would have kept things simple against the Pats the Bills would be 2-0 but not necessarily a Level 1 team since Buffalo’s pass defense is ranked 31st overall.
Dallas Cowboys: America’s team is one of the most dominant offensive teams in the NFL but they rank 30th in yards allowed.
Baltimore Ravens: A lot of people may argue that the Ravens belong in level 1 but they have taken a step back defensively from last year, allowing 25 points per game.
Level 3: These teams are either 1-1 or 0-2. If they are 1-1 and in level 3 it is because their win came against a basement team (level 4) and in many cases they were barely able to pull out the victory. Realistically, at this point in the season we can honestly say that 1 or 2 of these teams (if any) will make it to the postseason.
Miami Dolphins: Last year’s most improved team will most likely not be able to match last year’s production because their offense will not manufacture a lot of points and they rank 27th in pass defense.
Carolina Panthers: Even if Jake Delhomme plays at his best, this team will not be able to win big games since their defense is allowing 33 points per game.
San Diego Chargers: A lot of people would probably consider San Diego a Level 2 team and the Chargers may win the AFC West again this season but they were barely able to defeat the Raiders and their defense is allowing too many points.
Green Bay Packers: In order for the Packers to move up the rankings, Aaron Rodgers will need to be sharper since he has completed only 56.7% of his passes this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags are just too weak offensively to be able to contend with tough opponents.
Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks may have demolished the Rams in week 1 but they were stomped by the 49ers last week and now they are pretty banged up.
Washington Redskins: Any team that cannot score a single touchdown against St. Louis cannot be amongst a group of teams higher than this level.
Tennessee Titans: Tennessee is 0-2 and its tough defense that has made up for a substantial lack of offense over the years is ranked 32nd in pass defense.
Level 4: These are the basement teams of the league. They are young rebuilding teams and all of them have made organizational changes since last season. Realistically, they will be lucky if they can win more than 4 games. Most of them failed to do this last year. Although they are basement teams they are worth playing once in a while as a heavy underdog because they often keep games close.
Oakland Raiders: Oakland has a strong running game and plays decent defensively but they won’t win games with a quarterback who completes only 35% of his passes.
Kansas City Chiefs: This is a young rebuilding team that may be better than last year but will still lose most of its games because of its tough schedule.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa is definitely experiencing growing pains particularly defensively as they rank 31st in points allowed and yards.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns have some playmakers but are being outscored by a margin of 16.5 points per game.
St. Louis Rams: Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive genius but his squad has only generated a total of 7 points offensively.
Detroit Lions: The Lions have lost 19 in a row.
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