NFL Week 6 Recap

This was definitely one of the most surprising weeks of the season. The books profited immensely this weekend as underdogs dominated going 9-5. The point totals were split evenly 7-7. Despite absorbing an extremely tough loss in regards to our 5* Platinum Selection, we still managed to pull of our fifth consecutive profitable week for NFL with a profit of 3.67 units. Our Platinum Selection was on Minnesota to cover a 3 point spread against Baltimore. We were really unlucky because Minnesota was up 27-10 with less than 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter and they completely collapsed defensively to allow 3 touchdowns to Baltimore. If Minnesota would have held on we would have posted a profit of 13.22 units on the week. The following events took place in week 6.

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In week 3 we introduced our 4 level scaled power rankings. In short, rather than assessing a numerical rating for each team and ranking them on a scale of 1-32, we grouped them into 4 separate levels. We feel that it is extremely difficult to justify that one team is clearly better than another in certain circumstances so we developed a levelled power rankings model. In week 3 our model was based on 4 levels. At that point our rankings were based on what we observed in the first 2 weeks of action. Basically, the model determined that higher level teams were stronger than lower level teams. Teams that were at the same level may not have the exact same level of strength but they are clearly stronger than teams in lower levels and weaker than the teams in higher levels. Continue Reading »

NFL Week 5 Recap

There were a few exciting games this week but there were several mismatches. Four teams were favored by double digits and not surprisingly each team won and three of the four covered the big number. This week underdogs had a slight edge going 8-6 and the point totals were evenly split 7-7. Of the 8 underdogs who covered the number, 5 of them won straight up. This was our fourth consecutive profitable week as we were 5-4 with a profit of 3.21 units. Here are the following key events that took place in week 5.

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The first quarter of the season has gone by for most teams. There have been several clubs that have exceeded expectations and several clubs whose performances have been quite disappointing. The clubs that are undoubtedly exceeding expectations are the Saints (4-0), Broncos (4-0), Colts (4-0), Jets (3-1) and 49ers (3-1). The most disappointing clubs include the Titans (0-4), Bucs (0-4), Panthers (0-3), Cards (1-2), Steelers (2-2), Chargers (2-2) and Cowboys (2-2). Fortunately the 2-2 teams and even the 1-2 Cards have enough time to turn their seasons around but their next couple of games will be critical. Favorites again dominated week 4, winning 9 of the 14 contests, meanwhile Overs were nearly as dominant going 8-5-1. We posted our third consecutive profitable week going 5-3 with a profit of 3.67 units. As the season progresses we will continue to be more aggressive with our selections as we continue to learn more about each team’s strengths and weaknesses. Here are the following key events that took place in week 4.

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This week favorites dominated going 11-5 and Unders had a slight edge going 9-7. Four of the five underdogs won the game straight up. Our selections were 6-5 with a profit of 2.58 units. The Monday nighter really hurt us since Jake Delhomme and the Panthers were absolutely terrible as they failed to cover the large spread. Additionally, because they couldn’t score the total was under by a margin of 19 points. We were a little more aggressive releasing a total of 11 plays, including five 4* selections and we were somewhat rewarded with a bigger profit than last week. Overall, we are 9-6 ATS and up 10.44 units of profit specifically with our ATS selections in this young season and therefore we will focus more heavily on releasing ATS selections rather than playing totals. The following is a summary of the key events that took place in week 3.

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After carefully reviewing the first two weeks of action we are releasing our week 3 power rankings. It is very early in the season so these rankings are considered more or less estimates. Instead of using a numbered ranking system where each team is ranked from a scale of 1 to 32, we have decided to use a 4 level scale. This gives us a lot more flexibility since it does not single out a specific team to be considered weaker than another but rather a selected group of teams. Continue Reading »

The second week of this young 2009 NFL season was truly a fan’s delight. Many players such as Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore and Fred Jackson had monster performances. Underdogs again had a slight edge going 9-7 and impressively won 8 of these contests outright. The Rams were the only team that covered the number without winning. There was a little more offensive action this week as Overs were 9-7. We ended the week 3-3 with a small profit of 0.86 units. Most of our plays were 2 units as the season is still young and therefore we prefer to play it safe. The reason we managed to generate a small profit despite winning only half of our picks is because we were 2-1 with our 3 unit plays. Additionally, one of those 3 unit plays was backing Oakland (2 units ATS & 1 unit as a +140 moneyline underdog) and Oakland won and covered. We will be more aggressive in our approach for week 3 as we are starting to get a better feel for where the teams stand. Stay tuned throughout the week as we will be releasing NFL and college football plays as early as Wednesday. We will analyse the key events that took place in week 2. Continue Reading »

What have we learned after the first two weeks of action? For starters, some teams who have made several organizational changes are finding that these changes are paying off. On the other hand, several teams that were considered to be amongst the league’s elite powerhouses appear to be showing signs of struggle. Being able to identify the underrated and overrated teams gives you a distinct advantage in playing the spread. We will analyze in depth the sleeper powerhouses and the sleeping powerhouses so that we can help you understand what to expect of them in the future and how you can benefit by playing the spread either for them or against them in this young season. Continue Reading »

There were a lot of fantasy and disappointments in week 1. The elite performers include Drew Brees (358 yards, 6 tds, 1 INT), Adrian Peterson (180 yards, 3 tds), Tony Romo (353 yards, 3 tds) and Philadelphia’s defense (5 sacks, 1 defensive td, 1 punt return td, 2 fumble recoveries, 5 INTs). The biggest fantasy disappointments last week were Jake Delhomme (73 yards, 0 tds, 4 INTs, 1 fumble), Steve Smith (Carolina) (21 yards), Andre Johnson (35 yards), and Terrell Owens (46 yards). We will closely analyze the most and least favorable fantasy matchups for week 2. Evidently if you have a player like Brees or Peterson you will start them regardless of who they are facing. This analysis is to determine the most or least favorable matchups for the players who you will not necessarily start every week.
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