San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins: Spread
|
This will be an exciting non conference matchup featuring two teams who have performed a lot better than what people anticipated prior to the beginning of the season. The Dolphins at 8-5 are in a 3 way tie for first place of the AFC East. They are arguably the most improved team this season, rebounding from a 1-15 campaign in 2007. The 49ers at 5-8 are out of the playoffs but have been a much better team since Mike Singletary took over as head coach after the first 6 weeks of the season. |
The Dolphins are quite a puzzling team this season. They have the ability to surprise the public by winning a lot of games as an underdog but yet they haven’t covered a single game as a favourite. They are 0-4 ATS in such situations. They have won 3 games without covering the spread this season. These wins came against weak opponents who have a combined record of 7-32. They won each game by an average margin of 2.7 points. Therefore, it would be quite logical to assume that the Dolphins may win this game but are quite unlikely to win by at least a touchdown.
The 49ers are a rejuvenated football team since Mike Singletary took over as head coach. His first move was starting Shaun Hill as quarterback. It paid off as the 49ers who are currently 5-8 are actually 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in the 5 games that Shaun Hill started as QB. His numbers are quite impressive. He played in 6 games, starting in 5, and has thrown for 1352 yards, 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. In those 6 games he had a QB rating of less than 90 only once.
San Francisco has adopted more of a passing game with Shaun Hill as QB. He is averaging 225 yards per game through the air. Miami has a weak passing defense as the Dolphins rank 21st in the league.
The 49ers have also been much more productive defensively as of late. They have allowed an average of 17 points per game in their last 4. The Dolphins are not a very powerful offensive team. They are averaging 20.7 points per game, ranking 23rd in the league. They will likely have limited offensive output which gives more reason to believe that San Fran will cover.
The trends are highly favourable for San Francisco. They are 4-1 ATS their last 5. Miami on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in its last 5. Additionally, the Dolphins are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favourite. Expect this to be a fairly low scoring game. This line is too high. The main reason Miami is favored by 6.5 is because West Coast teams have struggled immensely when playing on the East Coast this season. Their record is 1-14 straight up. However, San Francisco happens to be the only West Coast team that managed to win in the East Coast and Miami failed to cover at home against 2 out of 3 West Coast opponents this season. Take the Niners with the points.
Prediction: Miami 20 San Francisco 17
Related posts: