New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers: Spread
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This pick is based primarily on coaching. The Pats were embarrassed by the Dolphins in front of their own fans and had an extra week to evaluate what they must do in order to win games without Tom Brady. Coach Belichik admitted publicly that he was outcoached in week 3 and you can expect that his team is absolutely determined to leave San Francisco with a win. The Pats main focus will be on tightening up their defense. In week 3 they allowed 461 yards and 5 touchdowns. Four of them were rushing touchdowns. |
Prior to week 3, the Pats allowed an average of 270 yards and only 10 points per game. After losing Tom Brady, defense became New England’s main strength. San Francisco is a 2-2 football team and has had mediocre success offensively this season. The Niners rank 15th in points scored and 12th yards gained. Defensively they have been less efficient ranking 21st in points allowed and 22nd in yards allowed. Matt Cassel will not completely pick apart their defense as he is not a superstar quarterback, but the Pats strategy will be focused on maintaining possession, similar to how the Redskins upset the Cowboys. In short, they won’t put up big numbers but they will control the game by gaining short to medium yardage and shutting down the 49ers offense. The focus of their bye week was to practice the execution of this strategy and to learn from the mistakes they made in week 3 against Miami.
Expect the outcome of this game to be similar to the game against the Jets in week 2 where New England won 19-10. This game will definitely not be too exciting but at least it’s easy money.
Prediction: New England 23 San Francisco 13
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