Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos: Over/Under
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It appears that any game in Denver is quite entertaining because there is no shortage of offense. Historically, the Broncos have been one of the league’s strongest teams offensively and usually one of the weaker defenses. Many sports bettors have had a tough time betting on the Broncos because they have the ability to completely demolish an opponent and to lose to a weak team. |
Over the years there has been a highly profitable trend favoring the over bet for Denver’s games. The point total is set at 47.5 for this game. It may be high and featuring Tampa Bay, one of the league’s top defensive powerhouses but I have no doubt in my mind that the total will be over. Denver is coming off a disappointing loss to Kansas City where the Broncos generated little offense, scoring only 17 points, its least productive game offensively thus far this season. The total was still over as Denver’s defense allowed 33 points to the Chiefs and 198 rushing yards to Larry Johnson. This game proved that even if Denver’s offense is not able to put up big numbers, their defense is weak enough to enable the opposition to put up enough points to cover the over bet.
There is every reason to believe that Tampa will put up points on the board. The Broncos are having difficulties at both stopping the run and covering the opposition. They rank 24th in yards allowed on the ground, 31st in pass defense and 30th in total yards allowed. Tampa Bay meanwhile, ranks ninth in offensive passing and rushing yards and 7th in total yards gained on offense.
Tampa’s defense is strong but will definitely not be able to completely shut down Denver’s offense. The Bucs have not had great success with its pass defense as it ranks 16th in the NFL. Denver’s passing attack ranks 2nd in the league. The Broncos will utilize their passing attack in order to maximize their success against Tampa. So far this season the Broncos have played 2 games at home and scored an average of 36.5 points against the opposition. Obviously, the Bucs are now going to easily let Denver generate this kind of success on offense but it is reasonable to assume that Denver will score 25-30 points and likely allow Tampa about the same amount.
The strongest case for the over pick for this game is based on trends related to both teams. The over record is 21-5-1 in Denver’s last 26 games and 8-2 in Tampa’s last 10. Overall, between the two teams there are 15 hot over trends. This means that there are 15 different types of streaks of at least 5 games where the total went over at least 80% of the time. Expect this game to be similar to the Denver/San Diego and Denver/New Orleans games.
Prediction: Denver 31 Tampa Bay 30
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