Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos: Spread
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This is a divisional matchup of little importance between two teams in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. The Broncos at 7-5 are more or less guaranteed to win the division. The Chiefs at 2-10 are still trying to prove that they are a competitive team with a bright future. |
Denver will probably win the game but not cover the spread. There are several reasons for this. First, they still haven’t covered a single game at home this season. Their record is 0-5-1 against the spread. Additionally, the Broncos do not fare well as a heavy favourite. They are 0-6 ATS when they are favoured by 3.5 points or more this season. When Kansas City is more than a 9.5 point underdog, it has posted a 4-1 record ATS this season.
The Reliant stadium is no stranger to high scoring affairs. The Texans become an offensive powerhouse at home. Houston is averaging 26.4 points per game at home this season. Consequently, this season’s over record when Houston plays at home is currently 4-1.
One of Denver’s main weaknesses this season has been its defensive output. The Broncos have the 28th ranked defense and are allowing an average of 26.6 points per game, ranking 29th in the NFL. They are facing an offense that is only averaging 18 points per game but has been more productive as of late. The Chiefs have been averaging 23.5 points per game in their past 6 contests. Due to the fact that K.C. managed to put up 33 points against the Broncos when these teams met in week 4, it would be reasonable to assume that K.C. will score at least 20-25 points.
The Broncos are an offensive powerhouse but lately they have struggled immensely at putting up points on the board at home. Denver has been averaging only 15 points per game in its last 4 home contests. It is quite difficult to imagine that the Broncos will be able to cover a 10 point spread with this kind of offensive production. The last time these teams met, Denver only managed to score 19 points.
The main reason K.C. defeated Denver in week 4 was because the Broncos turned the ball over 4 times. I believe that turnovers will be a critical component to the outcome of this game. K.C. has quite an advantage in this category since the Chiefs have a turnover differential of +5 compared to Denver’s differential of -11.
This line is too inflated. The Broncos are one of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL. They are able to defeat a tough opponent one week and then lose to a very weak team the next. Take the Chiefs with the points.
Prediction: Denver 24 Kansas City 20
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