Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks: Spread
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Philadelphia has a lethal weapon that can completely change the outcome of a game. His name is Brian Westbrook. Betting on Philly with Westbrook in the lineup has been quite profitable this season. The Eagles are 4-1 against the spread this season when Westbrook suits up. The Eagles covered a 9 point spread against the Falcons last game thanks to Westbrook’s 39 yard rushing touchdown at the end of the game. |
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The Eagles are healthy and are a much stronger team than Seattle. The Seahawks may have some momentum as they are off their second victory of the season, blowing out the 49ers 34-13. However, the reality is that the 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league. The matchup is quite favourable for Philadelphia. The Eagles statistically are one of the best offensive teams in the league. They are averaging 27.7 points per game and 361.1 yards ranking 5th and 8th in those categories. They are facing a Seahawks defense that has underperformed immensely this season. They are allowing 26.3 points per game and 367 yards ranking 25th and 27th in those categories. The biggest mismatch of this matchup is Philly’s passing game versus Seattle’s pass defense. The Seahawks have a vulnerable pass defense that has allowed 245.3 yards per game, ranking 30th in the NFL. Donovan McNabb has been averaging 260.1 yards in the air this season. All in all, with a healthy Westbrook in the lineup, the Eagles have one of the most powerful offenses in the league. They will put up a lot of points against Seattle.
The Seahawks have performed quite poorly offensively this season. However, a strong portion of their struggles have been away from home. At home Seattle has scored 84 points in 3 games. However, 80% of these points were from 2 games where Hasselbeck was the starting QB and facing a weak defense. This was against San Francisco and St. Louis. Unless a miracle occurs, it appears Hasselbeck won’t get the start against Philly. His injury status is still quite uncertain and Holmgren considers him to be on a week-to-week status. Either way, the Eagles are a very strong defensive team. They rank 10th in points allowed and 7th in yards allowed. Additionally, they have 23 sacks, ranking 4th in the NFL. The Eagles also have a sharp edge in turnover differential because of their solid defensive play. Philly’s defense is the only defense in the league to have recovered every fumble they have forced. This has helped Philadelphia steal the ball from their opponent 7 times this season. The Eagles also have 8 interceptions and overall have a turnover differential of +7 compared to Seattle’s -4. In short, on average the Eagles are generating at least one more turnover than their opponent per game. There is no question that this stat makes this pick much more attractive.
Expect this to be an entertaining offensive shootout. Historically, Seattle may be a tough home opponent but Philadelphia is an even tougher road opponent. The Seahawks are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 home games. However, they are 1-2 ATS at home this season. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 on the road. The Eagles will cover 7 points.
Prediction: Philadelphia 31 Seattle 20
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