Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals: Spread
 Premium Pick: Jacksonville -9
The Bengals have been absolutely terrible this season. If Carson Palmer sits for the rest of the season they will become last year’s Miami Dolphins and risk having a potentially winless season. It has proven to be quite profitable betting against the Bengals this season, particularly with Ryan Fitzpatrick as quarterback. |
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Jacksonville at 3-4 will absolutely have to win this game in order to have any kind of hope of making the playoffs. This could be a major breakout game for the Jaguars, and particularly for running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Both have struggled all season averaging a combined 85 rushing yards per game. They have a substantial opportunity to generate better numbers this game since the Bengals rank 27th in yards allowed on the ground. Jacksonville has had exceptional success against weak running defenses. Nearly half of Jacksonville’s total rushing yards came from 2 of their 7 games this season. This was when they played against Indianapolis and Denver, two of the worst rush defenses in the league. Therefore it makes complete sense to assume that Jacksonville will be able to generate a lot of offense against Cincinnati with its running game.
The main reason that Jacksonville will cover is because Cincinnati’s offense is absolutely pitiful with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. He’s started 4 games and Cincinnati didn’t cover in any of those games. That’s probably because they have been averaging only 10.5 points per game with him as QB. What’s extremely surprising is the fact that the Bengals only managed to score 6 points last week against Houston. Prior to last game, the Texans were allowing an average of almost 30 points per game! Fitzpatrick is averaging less than 150 yards per game and has 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. In other words, he’s basically guaranteed to turnover the ball at least once against Jacksonville. With a completely inexistent passing game, Cincinnati will have to depend on its running game to move the ball. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they also have a weak running game as they are averaging only 77.8 rushing yards per game ranking 30th in the league. In short, Jacksonville will have an easy time shutting down Cincinnati.
All in all, the Jags will cover because they will score a lot of points by running the ball and will easily limit Cincinnati’s offensive output. I just can’t see the Bengals scoring more than 13 points. Jacksonville would need to put up more than 22 points to cover. Seeing that Cincinnati has being allowing an average of 33 points per game in its last 3, this shouldn’t be an issue. Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The Jags will cover 9 points.
Prediction: Jacksonville 27 Cincinnati 13
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