New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs: Spread
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The Chiefs have been playing much better than their 1-8 record indicates. They may have 8 losses but they have covered the spread 5 times this year. They are currently on a 3 game ATS winning streak. They lost each of their last 3 games but only by an average of 2.67 points. The Saints haven’t even won a single game on the road. |
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The Chiefs are not an impressive team offensively but seemed to have found a quarterback in Tyler Thigpen. He has helped carry their offense in the last 3 games, throwing for 710 yards and 7 touchdowns without any interceptions. Additionally, running back Larry Johnson is expected to play. He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The Chiefs will be facing a defense that has allowed an average of 25.4 points per game and 348 yards ranking 24th in the NFL in both categories. Additionally, the Saints are allowing an average of 31.75 points on the road. Expect Thigpen and the Chiefs to put up big numbers offensively.
The Saints are one of the most powerful offensive teams in the league. Drew Brees leads the league with 2985 yards. He already has 17 touchdowns but has also thrown 10 picks including 3 against the Falcons last week. The Saints are averaging 26.2 points per game but only 20.75 on the road. The Chiefs are definitely one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Saints are definitely going to score a lot of points against them. However, the Chiefs have a significant edge in winning turnovers. Kansas city currently ranks 2nd in the NFL with a turnover differential of +9. New Orleans is tied for 26th in that category with a differential of –5. This is a very important factor that will play a critical role in the Chiefs’ success against New Orleans. It will be difference maker in K.C. covering the spread.
The Chiefs have covered against some talented teams this season. These teams include New England, Denver, New York Jets, Tampa Bay and San Diego. Every week it appears that Tyler Thigpen is getting more and more confident. He’s going to have a field day against the Saints. Expect this to be a high scoring game. The reality is that the Chiefs may very well win this one outright. If they lose it will be by 3-4 points. I am completely confident that they will cover.
Prediction: K.C. 31 New Orleans 29
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