Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Spread
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This is a similar type of matchup as Pittsburgh versus Cincinnati. The Seahawks will again be without Matt Hasselbeck, meaning that Charlie Frye or Seneca Wallace will get the start. This is one of the deciding factors for betting on Tampa as a 10.5 point favorite. The other main deciding factor is that Tampa is a much tougher opponent when they play at home combined with the fact that Seattle is a very weak road opponent. The Bucs are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 home games and if you exclude week 17 of last year where they rested all their starters, they are 9-2 in their last 11. The Bucs are 5-1 ATS this season and 5-0 in their last 5 games. The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and are 1-4 ATS this season. |
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The main determinant of Tampa beating the spread is that Seattle just won’t put up enough points on the board. So far this season, the Bucs have allowed an average of 11 points per game. What’s impressive is that each opponent they have played at home currently has .500 records or better, meaning that they have been able to shutdown relatively strong opponents. The Seahawks have been atrocious on the road. They have only averaged 8 points per game away from home and 219.5 yards and a turnover differential of -3. The Bucs on the other hand have a solid turnover differential of +5 at home. The only positive thing for Seattle’s offense is its running game. The Seahawks currently rank 5th in the league for yards gained on the ground. Seattle will definitely focus mainly on running the ball, especially since they will be without Hasselbeck. The Bucs have been relatively successful at stopping the run as they rank 9th in the NFL in yards allowed on the ground.
Jeff Garcia has regained his crown as starting QB for Tampa after a solid performance against Carolina. He was 15/20 for 173 yards, a touchdown and had a rating of 117.3. Tampa is averaging 27 points at home. Tampa’s main threat on offense is its running game since the Bucs rank 6th in the NFL in rushing yards. The Seahawks rank 23rd for rushing yards allowed. Overall the Seahawks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL. They rank 29th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed. Furthermore, the Seahawks have allowed an average of 39 points on the road so far this season.
It is never easy to bet on a 10.5 point favorite because it is a very large spread to cover. However, this matchup indicates that this game should be a one sided affair. This season Tampa has outscored much better opponents than Seattle at home by a margin of 81-33. That’s an average margin of 16 points per game. It would be a complete fluke if somehow Seattle covers, especially without Hasselbeck in the mix.This game will be fairly similar to the Packers/Cowboys game in week 3. The Colts will extend their winning streak.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 34 Seattle 9
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