The Patriots have been red hot offensively as of late, averaging 39.5 points in their last two contests. During that span, Matt Cassel threw for 815 yards and 6 touchdowns and had a rating above 100 in each game. If he plays like this against the Steelers the Pats will definitely put up big numbers on the scoreboard and the Steelers will be forced to match their production offensively. If New England continues to allow points the way it did during its last 2 games, this task will be relatively easy for Pittsburgh. The Pats have allowed an average of 31 points in their last two contests.

Many people may question this pick because the Steelers have the top ranked defense. Additionally, they are allowing an average of only 14.5 points per game. The reality is that if Matt Cassel continues to excel offensively the Patriots will manage to put up points against the Steelers. As mentioned previously, once this happens, Pittsburgh will be forced to put up points against New England.

History also favors the over. These teams have played 4 times since 2004. The average point total of these games is 53, indicating that there is significant value in betting that the total will be greater than 40. Consequently, the total has gone over 5 out of the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Expect this to be an exciting game that may quite possibly get decided in the final minutes of the game.

Prediction: New England 24 Pittsburgh 20

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