Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions: Spread
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I rarely ever recommend betting the favourite in a double digit spread for a National football game. However, this one is quite obvious. The Lions are just that terrible. They are still winless after 11 games and 0-5 against the spread at home this season. They have performed quite poorly in front of their fans allowing an average of 36.6 points to the opposition and losing each game by an average margin of 20 points. Their opponent, Tennessee, is tied for first place in the league at 11-1 and is 5-0 ATS versus teams with a losing record and 5-0 ATS on the road this season. |
Tennessee is coming off its first loss of the season. It was an embarrassment. The Titans lost 34-13 to the New York Jets. Expect the Titans to rebound from that loss and as a result will end up blowing out the opponent. They have the ninth ranked rushing offense and are facing the worst rush defense in the league. Tennessee has put up big numbers against weak rush defenses. The Titans have faced 4 teams that are currently ranked among the bottom quarter of the league in rush defense and have scored an average of 28.75 points per game against them. Expect the Titans to put up big numbers with their ground attack.
Daunte Culpepper has started Detroit’s last 3 games. He signed with the club halfway through the year and was inserted in the lineup immediately. As a result the Lions have turned the ball over 8 times in the games he started. This weakness in Detroit’s offense will be a crucial factor for the Titans to cover the spread. Tennessee’s defense has already forced 22 turnovers this season.
Detroit is only averaging 16.6 points per game at home this season and is facing one of the league’s strongest defensive teams. The Titans have been allowing an average of only 15 points per game to the opposition, ranking 2nd in the NFL. They have only allowed an average of 11.5 points per game to teams who currently have losing records.
Expect this to be a pure one sided affair, similar the Titans 34-10 victory over Kansas City in week 7. The Lions will get blown out. Tennessee will cover 11 points.
Prediction: Tennessee 31 Detroit 13
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