Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Spread
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This will be an interesting NFC matchup featuring two teams that are fighting to win their divisions and make the playoffs. I like Tampa in this one because they are facing a one dimensional offense in front of their home fans. Tampa Bay is one of the toughest teams to play against at home. It will take a lot more than a one dimensional offense to beat them. The Buccaneers will focus on shutting down Adrian Peterson and will limit Minnesota’s ability move the ball. |
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The Bucs are undefeated at home this season and are 3-1 against the spread. The one game they didn’t beat the spread was in their 20-10 win over Seattle where they were favoured by 10.5 points. The Bucs have held the opponent to an average of only 10.8 points per game and 218.3 total yards including 69 rushing yards when playing at home this season. Adrian Peterson has been hot as of late, rushing for over 100 yards in his last 4 contests. However, not surprisingly, he is cashing in against poor rush defenses. He has rushed for over 100 yards 6 times this year and only once against a team who’s rush defense is currently ranked in the top half of the NFL.
If Minnesota’s running game gets shutdown then the Vikings will be in hot water. They have a mediocre at best pass offense and a quarterback who’s been struggling immensely as of late. Frerotte has thrown 8 picks in his last 3 outings. The Bucs have a very strong pass defense, allowing an average of only 190.1 passing yards per game ranking fifth in that category. These numbers only get better when they play at home as they are allowing an average of 149.3 passing yards.
One of the Bucs main defensive strengths is their ability to force turnovers. Tampa’s defense has forced 11 turnovers at home. The fact that Gus Frerotte has thrown 8 picks in his last 3 games gives one more reason to believe that Tampa will win this one and cover the spread.
Another challenge Tampa will be facing in this game is overcoming Minnesota’s defense. The Vikings rank 6th in the league in total yards allowed, only allowing an average of 289.3 yards. This is mainly because Minnesota has the third best rush defense in the NFL. If Cadillac Williams plays, the Bucs will have three solid running backs to counter the Vikings run defense. The Vikings weakness defensively is stopping the opponent at moving the ball through the air. They are only ranked 19th in pass defense. Unlike Minnesota, if the Tampa’s running game fails it will be able to move the ball through the air. Jeff Garcia is having a strong season and is performing even better at home. He has started 2 games in Tampa and in those games he has thrown for 483 yards, 2 touchdowns and no picks. Additionally, he completed 75% of his passes and had a rating above 100 in each game.
Expect this to be a fairly low scoring game but for the Bucs to cover the 4 points. History is on their side since the home team is 8-1-1 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 20 Minnesota 10
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